As the United States focuses on tackling climate change, the energy market is seen as a key part of the solution. While federal policy and funding is focused on electric vehicles, a quieter potential answer is emerging: the growing adoption of renewable fuels.
自2007年可再生燃料标准颁布以来，包括生物柴油和乙醇在内的可再生燃料一直在减少排放, 可再生柴油是一种新兴的解决方案，可以推动农业和皇冠hga010安卓二维码领域的巨大变化.
但变化的速度会有多快?
While all renewable diesel adoption has come in California and Oregon, 哪些国家制定了低碳燃料标准，使炼油厂更能负担得起这种燃料的生产, 它在全国范围内的增长可能不会太遥远.
可再生柴油vs. 生物柴油
“We’re in the early adoption phase with renewable diesel, which will grow as more states have low-carbon fuel standards in place,乔·拉迪说, 市场情报分析员, CHS全球研究. “势头不错，投资也不错. 它将在可预见的未来到来.”
豆油原料的影响
正如乙醇通过E15等高混合燃料的扩张稳步增长玉米需求一样, increased use of renewable diesel could cause demand spikes for vegetable oil feedstocks, 尤其是豆油.
在大多数情况下, 化石燃料与可再生燃料混合使用, 但可再生柴油在提炼过程中是分开的，完全由植物油等可再生澳门皇冠赌场平台制成,杰森·施旺茨说, 高级副总裁, CHS精炼燃料. “Which means more use of renewable diesel could impact soybean oil as a food source.”
阅读更多: 用大豆驱动发动机
“It will be a once-in-a-generation change in the use of soybean oil,克里斯·波森补充道, 副总统, CHS全球谷物 & Processing, and that shift will have significant implications for ag.
2021年，大豆资产负债表紧张，出口创纪录，主要是作为动物饲料出口到中国. We won’t see massive demand increases like this in the near term, 对2022年的预测是，美国的人口总量将减少.S. 拉迪说，出口增长了近9%. “中国正在努力减少对进口的依赖, 非洲猪瘟在2018年将中国养猪业转变为工业化体系，他们使用更多的玉米作为饲料,他说.
此外，巴西是全球大豆的领导者. “In 2022, 据预测，巴西的大豆产量将达到1.43亿吨，是世界上最大的. 美国.S. 增长1.19亿吨. Brazil exports almost two-thirds of its crop,” says Lardy.
Other sources such as animal fat and canola can be used to create renewable diesel, but using these feedstocks doesn’t satisfy Renewable Fuel Standard specifications. 人们正在努力改变这种状况, 包括向环境保护署(EPA)提交的一份申请，要求将油菜籽认证为可再生燃料原料.
美国环保署进行分析，以确保用于生产可再生燃料的原料相对于汽油和柴油减少一定比例的碳排放,丹·莫尔说, CHS华盛顿代表, 谁与立法者和行业团体会面，倡导更好的可再生燃料政策. “They’re currently testing canola oil as a pathway for renewable diesel, and it’s believed that canola should meet the required 50% carbon reduction threshold, 但批准的时间表尚不清楚.”
精炼和3r: RFS, RIN和RVO
可再生燃料标准(RFS)由国会于2007年制定，要求炼油商将可再生燃料混合到国家的运输燃料中. 可更新的识别号码(RIN), 可再生燃料标准的遵守机制, is created when a gallon of qualifying renewable fuel is produced. That RIN is then “attached” to that gallon of renewable fuel. It is separated once the renewable fuel is blended with gasoline or diesel. 它可以用来显示对RFS的遵守，并且可以进行交易或存入银行以备将来使用. If a refinery doesn’t blend enough renewable fuel into the gas or diesel that it produces, 炼油商必须购买RINs. The number of RINs a refiner must have is set through the renewable volume obligation (RVO). The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has yet to name the RVO for 2021, which leaves refiners and renewable fuels groups guessing.
Due to 2020 gas demand declines and market uncertainties, RIN prices have been extremely volatile since the pandemic began. In January 2020, ethanol RINs were being purchased for about $0.15. In June 2021, they traded at an all-time high of over $2.
2021年10月，RINs的成本约为1美元.30.
可再生燃料标准将在2022年之后发生重大变化，届时国会授权的可再生燃料标准将到期，EPA将获得设定未来数量的唯一权力. 国会可以通过一项新的法律，为该行业提供更多的确定性，也可以让环保署来决定可再生燃料标准的未来.
“我们不知道是什么样的项目, 如果有任何, 可再生皇冠hga010安卓二维码标准将被,丹·莫尔说, CHS华盛顿代表. “目前的市场波动和未来可再生燃料标准的潜在变化使炼油行业处于焦虑的境地.”
大豆压榨能力有望增长
To accommodate the expected increase in soybean oil demand for renewable diesel, 美国各地的压榨能力正在扩大.S.Pothen说. “We’re seeing not only traditional large crushers growing in capacity, but new players coming in from the energy and private equity space.”
This includes expansion at the CHS soybean processing plant in Fairmont, 明尼苏达州., and a recently announced expansion of the CHS soybean refinery in Mankato, 明尼苏达州., which will increase the facility’s soy oil refining capacity by 30%.
这种增长对道格·詹金斯来说是个好消息, 谁跑的比2个多,在温尼贝戈附近种植了1000英亩的玉米和大豆, 明尼苏达州.并将大豆运送到费尔蒙特的CHS工厂.
“当价格好的时候，工厂可以被填满. We want plants to be ready to take more crop as demand for soybeans grows. CHS植物能够吸收更多的豆子, we know we can deliver our crop and take advantage of that good price.”
Pothen说:“这个行业的目标是生产超出市场需求的产品。.
With increased crush capacity comes increased byproducts. “我们越能将粗豆油转化为食品市场或可再生柴油原料的大豆油, 我们生产的豆粕就越多.”
这可能意味着豆粕产量将增加15%. “We’ll need more infrastructure to support soybean meal. 这可能意味着牲畜生产者或增加饲料出口的机会，”Pothen说. “其影响将挑战当前的平衡，并将造成贸易流动的变化.”
政策将推动可再生柴油的采用
可再生柴油能多快进入主流消费，多快被采用取决于政策, 莫尔说. “政策将成为采用的驱动因素, especially the implementation of state-by-state low-carbon fuel standards.”
Pending policies such as the extension of the renewable diesel tax credit, 目前将于2022年底到期, and the push for a sustainable aviation fuel could tip the scales. “让可再生皇冠hga010安卓二维码对美国农村有意义的最好办法是制定支持性政策，奖励那些创造和混合更多可再生燃料的炼油厂,莫尔说。.
但是在最近签署成为法律的两党基础设施法案中没有为可再生燃料提供资金, Mauer says the industry will have to find other opportunities, such as the recently announced $700 million in funding from USDA for biofuel producers. “As we look at the Renewable Fuel Standard mandates sunsetting after 2022, 这些来自政府机构的机会可以帮助推动可再生燃料的采用.”
可再生柴油什么时候会成为常态?
要使可再生柴油的生产比传统柴油更具成本效益，必须具备三个条件.
- 将生物柴油或可再生柴油与石油柴油混合的燃料混合商每加仑可获得1美元的税收抵免. Congress is considering legislation that would extend the credit through 2026. 这项政策是在联邦一级实施的.
- 一个信用, or biomass-based diesel renewable identification number (or D4 RIN), that is created when renewable diesel is produced from feedstocks like soy oil, 废油或动物脂肪. 这项政策是在联邦一级实施的.
- 低碳燃料标准(LCFS), 哪一种燃料可以为燃料生产商创造排放更少温室气体的燃料而获得信用. California and Oregon are currently the only states with active LCFSs. If more states adopt LCFSs, renewable diesel adoption will grow. 此策略是按州设置的.
电动汽车的增长受到基础设施的阻碍
“As we look at the role of the energy and ag markets in decreasing carbon emissions, 所有迹象都表明一种进化, 不是革命,达林·亨霍夫说, 执行副总裁, CHS皇冠hga010安卓二维码. “如果你拿起任何一份报纸, you might think everyone will be driving electric vehicles (EVs) in the next few years. 现实情况是，在我们准备好大规模采用之前，有许多基础设施问题需要解决. If everyone goes out and buys an EV and plugs it in, the electric grid will be overloaded.”
而美国只有5%的汽车.S. 今天的道路是电动的, 这个数字预计还会增长, driven in part by state and federal policies that support EV adoption. “It’s clear through the regulations and rules the Biden administration has put forward, 以及国会正在考虑的立法, 联邦政府将电动汽车视为实现其气候变化目标的主要途径之一,莫尔说。. “这些举措支持建立充电站网络和购买电动汽车的税收抵免. 对电动汽车的推动不会很快停止.”
在美国农村地区，这项技术的采用可能会慢一些. “Electric vehicles just don’t make sense yet for a lot of people in rural communities,schwanz说. “Charging stations aren’t yet widely available and driving distances are greater.”
Schwantz says there’s even less viability for on-farm electric equipment. “大扭矩和大马力的农用设备可能会继续依赖柴油燃料. 我们还没有看到电动农场设备具有充电能力或运行今天的农场所需的电力.”
随着农业设备和卡车继续使用柴油, 亨霍夫说，可再生柴油可能是在为农业提供动力的同时减少排放的解决方案. “Reducing greenhouse gases will rely on a combination of efforts, 包括电动汽车, but renewable fuels could be a more sustainable and attainable solution, 尤其是在美国农村地区.”
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