丙烷 buyers are no strangers to the ebbs and flows of market shifts and dips. But while seasonal swings have long been a driving force in purchase decisions, 丙烷的供应不再是季节性的.
“There’s a hope that supply availability will loosen up and we’ll again see the seasonal price shifts we’re used to,Ben Lyden说, 主任 丙烷 CHS的商品风险. “但我们并没有从COVID-19大流行中恢复正常. 市场已经变了.”
At 2.400万桶/天, domestic 丙烷 production has rebounded from a mid-2020 dip to near-record highs. 但你.S. 库存处于五年来的低点. 为什么? 向其他国家的客户出口的丙烷比以往任何时候都多.
“你.S. 能生产足够的丙烷，”莱登说. “Production is growing, but more than 50% of that 丙烷 is being pulled overseas. 尽管CHS不向海外出口丙烷, growing demand from global customers is creating tight supply and shaping a new normal for everyone in the industry.”
驱动力
两个关键因素加速了美国丙烷的流失.S.
首先，最近在美国的投资.S. 丙烷的基础设施, 包括新建管道和出口终端, 是否增加了运输更多产品的能力. “本地产品不会停留在本地. The ability to move as much 丙烷 volume as we can today just didn’t exist four years ago,莱登说。.
Additional pipelines from North Dakota’s Bakken oil and gas fields to the Conway underground storage facility in Kansas and on to the Mont Belvieu export facilities in Texas have made it easier to move more 丙烷 to the Gulf Coast and into the export market.
现在的你.S. infrastructure has the capacity to export up to 75% of the nation’s domestic 丙烷 production — roughly 1.800万桶/天. 2021年，出口平均占全国产量的52%.
“你.S. 生产2.每天400万桶丙烷，”莱登说. “如果出口接近200万桶, that doesn’t leave much for domestic buyers who need 丙烷 to fuel their operations and heat their homes. 任何形式的需求激增都没有多少缓冲空间.”
Second, increased plastic use has triggered exponential growth in 丙烷 demand. 在大流行开始时, 随着网上购物的飞速发展, 对塑料包装的需求也在增长. 结果是, demand spiked from petrochemical producers who use resin from natural gas products like 丙烷 to make plastic packaging. 未来还会有更多, 赖登说, since additional Chinese petrochemical plants are expected to open over the next two years.
“We’ve seen increased international appetite for 丙烷 matched with an ability to move much larger volumes abroad,莱登说。. “这是一场完美风暴.”
2021年丙烷出口目的地
| 日本 | 28% |
| 墨西哥 | 13% |
| 中国 | 11% |
| 韩国 | 8% |
| 欧盟 | 3% |
引领丙烷价格新常态
这个变化意味着U.S. farmers are in direct competition with international markets for the 丙烷 they need.
“如果今天在地球的另一端发生重大需求事件，”他说.S. farmers would feel it in 丙烷 price and supply availability tomorrow,莱登说。. “日常市场动态也是如此. While farmers are working to secure supply in advance of peak seasonal demand, global markets are buying 24/7 and influencing price and supply in the process.”
国内丙烷客户更容易受到外部市场因素的影响, 莱登建议重新设定期望值.
“我们已经习惯了丙烷价格在夏季下降, and seasonal customers are accustomed to having access to last-minute supply to get them through their tightest spots. 但如果我们看不到更大的产量增长, 丙烷 suppliers are going to have a problem sourcing physical supply during high-demand periods,他说.
Recent warmer winter weather may have created a false sense of security for seasonal customers.
“今年的冬天相对温和, 所以美国的库存高于预期,莱登说。. “With more typical cold-weather demand, our supplies could have reached historically low levels. The tight supply shaping our new normal could mean we are one weather event away from being short of physical product.”
未雨绸缪
While it’s impossible to predict the full effect of the complex factors driving the 丙烷 market today, Lyden recommends working with cooperative 丙烷 experts to plan ahead and strategize storage and contract options for protection from volatile supply swings.
Using fixed price contracts can help manage risk because it doesn’t leave customers open to market spikes in price at times when supply is tight, 他说. 但额外的存储空间也是一项关键资产.
“Having more on-farm storage is one of the best ways to reduce risk during periods when inventory is extremely tight and supply is tough to find,莱登说. “额外的存储空间也有助于在最佳购买时间锁定低价.”
史蒂夫Brazee, 谁会和他的兄弟和儿子在自家的土地上种玉米和大豆,在尼纳有600英亩的农场, 威斯康星州.在升级他的谷物干燥系统时，他选择增加丙烷的储存. He knew having more 丙烷 on hand would deliver multiple returns on investment.
“在干旱季节, 在升级储存设备之前，我们每天都能收到丙烷,Brazee说. “Now I don’t have to stop what I’m doing to go check the 丙烷 tank all the time. I know I have more storage to pull from and I’m not hanging on the next delivery. 我把丙烷的运送量减少了一半.”
Increased on-farm storage has also opened up new cost-saving opportunities for Brazee. With more flexibility between deliveries, he’s been able to fill up when 丙烷 prices drop. 他和Lisa Effert一起工作, a certified energy specialist with Country Visions Cooperative based in Brillion, 威斯康星州.，以确保较低的价格.
“It’s been great to have Lisa as a partner to help get us the best bang for our buck,” says Brazee. “We can make the most of our storage and avoid some of the fluctuations in the market today. It’s one less stressor for me and frees me up to tackle other work on the farm.”
为长期投资回报而投资
投资额外的丙烷储存是一项重大投资. To help manage costs, financing is available through the CHS Storage for Pennies program.
该计划包括租赁到拥有散装燃料储存和设备的选项, 包括丙烷罐. Operations can lease tanks and begin receiving bulk 丙烷 deliveries right away, then pay for the equipment over time with payments included in the price of 丙烷 purchased from CHS.
与CHS合作, cooperative energy experts can help with equipment selection and sourcing equipment, 然后与可靠的供应商排队安装.
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